Establishment of an integrated model incorporating standardised uptake value and N-classification for predicting metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND Previous studies reported a correlation between the maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax) obtained by 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and distant metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, an integrated model incorporating SUVmax and anatomic staging for stratifying metastasis risk has not been reported. RESULTS The median SUVmax for primary tumour (SUV-T) and cervical lymph nodes (SUV-N) was 13.6 (range, 2.2 to 39.3) and 8.4 (range, 2.6 to 40.9), respectively. SUV-T (HR, 3.396; 95% CI, 1.451-7.947; P = 0.005), SUV-N (HR, 2.688; 95%CI, 1.250-5.781; P = 0.011) and N-classification (HR, 2.570; 95%CI, 1.422-4.579; P = 0.001) were identified as independent predictors for DMFS from multivariate analysis. Three valid risk groups were derived by RPA: low risk (N0-1 + SUV-T <10.45), medium risk (N0-1 + SUV-T >10.45) and high risk (N2-3). The three risk groups contained 100 (22.3%), 226 (50.3%), and 123 (27.4%) patients, respectively, with corresponding 3-year DMFS rates of 99.0%, 91.5%, and 77.5% (P <0.001). Moreover, multivariate analysis confirmed the RPA-based prognostic grouping as the only significant prognostic indicator for DMFS (HR, 3.090; 95%CI, 1.975-4.835; P <0.001). METHODS Data from 449 patients with with histologically-confirmed, stage I-IVB NPC treated with radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy were retrospectively analysed. A prognostic model for distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) was derived by recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) combining independent predictors identified by multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION SUV-T, SUV-N and N-classification were identified as independent predictors for DMFS. An integrated RPA-based prognostic model for DMFS incorporating SUV-N and N-classification was proposed.